Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 7/28/26
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5 min read
| 2:01 |
: Hey everybody, I got the post up a little late today, so I’m going to give this a few more minutes before starting.
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| 2:06 |
: Okay folks, thanks for your patience, let’s get going
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| 2:07 |
: ICYMI, Eric had a prospect buyer’s guide for the Dodgers go live today: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trade-deadline-prospect-guide-los-angeles-…
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| 2:07 |
: I’ll have the Rangers version tomorrow or Thursday
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| 2:07 |
: And let’s get going
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| 2:07 |
: Thoughts on Early-Mead?
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| 2:08 |
: Really like it for Washington
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| 2:09 |
: If there isn’t something wrong with Early, this looks like very tidy business for the Nats. On Blue Sky Craig Goldstein said something about this being a red paperclip kind of moment for that front office and I liked that. In that spirit, maybe they can flip Early for, I don’t know, Drake Baldwin?
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| 2:09 |
: I was surprised not to see Clohisy mentioned in the updated Braves list. He seems to be building on his success from last year and looks like a 4th OF or more. What’s the scouting read on him?
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| 2:10 |
: He well could be. The midseason updates are not an exhaustive re-ranking, more of a fresh look at the biggest movers and shakers on the farm. We don’t have the bandwidth to completely re-do a farm system midstream.
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| 2:12 |
: Wondering if your evaluation of Giants outfielder Carlos Gutierrez has changed since your pre-season writeup? Notably, lack of strength has always been something against Gutierrez but it seems he’s unlocked some power despite his modest frame. Curious to see if he’s someone rising on the Giants prospects list with a strong season in Eugene.
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| 2:13 |
: He’s hitting for more in-game power but his max exits aren’t up at all. EV90 up a little year over year but in line with the 40 he got on the report.
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| 2:13 |
: He’ll rise a little on next year’s list I’d imagine, but nothing crazy
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| 2:14 |
: Do you think Kemp Alderman will manage enough contact in the majors to get to 25 homers regularly?
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| 2:14 |
: It’s not out of the question, but I don’t think it’s a median outcome either
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| 2:14 |
: Part of the issue maybe that he just won’t get enough at bats to do it if he winds up in a platoon/PH role
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| 2:16 |
: I am interested in the update process. Ik now there was some disagreement maybe about Jacob Reimer’s placement in the preseason top 100, for example, and players move around, but he not only moved off the top 100, when I check the Mets team board, he is now all the way down to 8th on the team that traded away 2 top guys and graduated 3 more. That seems like a really precipitous drop from a 50 FV to a 40 FV in just a few months that also included injury. No doubt he’s sturggled, but come back to leage average (after being brutal in the beginning) and still young for the league. Just curious about it.
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| 2:18 |
: His performance triggered a re-eval, and some of the things that looked like concerns over the winter have been a big part of why he’s struggled.
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| 2:18 |
: It’s not unusual at all for two different evaluators to have pretty different reads on a guy
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| 2:19 |
: some of y’all would lose your minds if you could see the range of internal reports on consensus T100 guys, for instance
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| 2:19 |
: So, sometimes what looks like a big drop is two different people handling the report
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| 2:21 |
: Obviously depending on how he hits, do you think it’s realistic that we see Roch get called up sometime in 2027?
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| 2:21 |
: It’s in play
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| 2:22 |
: The Nationals red paperclip started with spending 50k on senior sign Boston Smith. And he’s….pretty good? Like “Creed Willems with better catching skills” good? Pretty cool trade tree.
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| 2:22 |
: Very. Nats fans should be thrilled with their front office.
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| 2:24 |
: Brendan! If you’re the Phillies and you’re trying to pry Trout out of the Angels’ death grip, who do you float as a prospect that would get them to pay down as much of that contract as possible? Let’s say it’s Garcia (bad contract) + <prospect> for Trout + cash, who’s the prospect?
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| 2:25 |
: You’re going to have to take an awful lot of the money, there. The Phillies system is not in the kind of place where they can really lean on their prospects to limit the financial burden.
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| 2:25 |
: And as a fan, I don’t know that you’d want them to?
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| 2:26 |
: Hi, did you get a chance to revisit Yoelin Cespides or any other Non-top Red Sox prospects since the list was published? Have any caught your eye recently?
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| 2:26 |
: I watched Greenville the other night and saw Cespedes track a slider down below the zone really well, so that’s on my mind for the re-eval next year.
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| 2:28 |
: Some of the low-level catchers, Primera particularly, will get a boost
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| 2:28 |
: Headed to Tacoma and Seattle for the first time. Any food I need to try at Cheney or T-Mobile?
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| 2:28 |
: It’s good food as far as ballparks go. The BBQ at Cheney is good but a gut bomb. The fish and chips are solid enough.
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| 2:29 |
: Seattle I’d mostly advise against the grab and go kiosks for food specifically, as there are a bunch of better options elsewhere
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| 2:30 |
: Do you know much about Dave Dombrowski? It seems like when he makes a trade, the prospects he trades away have huge names/pedigree, but don’t seem to do a ton. Does he have a knack, or is there a trend or pattern that you notice with the players he chooses to part with?
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| 2:32 |
: Win some, lose some like everybody else but the reality is that most prospects don’t make it, and so if you’re in a position to get good big leaguers for minor leaguers, those deals are going to work out fairly well in the aggregate.
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| 2:33 |
: I don’t mean to sell him short, he’s a great talent evaluator. HOF exec.
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| 2:33 |
: Last week you mentioned in a response to my question that when you were working for Pirates, you were not a prospect scout. Can you clarify what type of player evaluations you did do? Were you an advance scout ir something? Maybe I misinterpreted.
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| 2:33 |
: I was a pro scout, meaning I scouted already pro players, as opposed to an amateur scout who covers high school/college guys.
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| 2:35 |
: In April’s TEX list, you mentioned to keep tabs on Saivel Zayas in the DSL. After a 155 wRC+, a 20 K% and a .276 ISO, any takeaways?
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| 2:36 |
: Measurable power is up, contact numbers are okay in the aggregate, a little on the low side for a DSL repeater. Similar lane for now, might update him more thoroughly in the offseason, would help if I can see him in instructs
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| 2:37 |
: How real is Esmerlyn Valdez? Not a 186 wrc+ with historic power (though, a fan can dream), but could he be a legit 30 homer guy moving forward?
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| 2:39 |
: I don’t think he’s necessarily Aquino but I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, as it’s really hard to pull of this kind of line with all the swing and miss. Power over hit w/30 homers seems like a reasonable ceiling.
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| 2:40 |
: River Ryan is almost 28. Why is he getting so much prospect love? If he were on any other team, he’d be a somewhat interesting non-prospect but everyone trips over themselves when the Rays or Dodgers have a guy in the minors
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| 2:40 |
: Nickname (required) is almost 28. Why is he getting so much chat love? If he were on any other website, he’d be a somewhat interesting non-prospect but everyone trips over themselves to answer his questions here
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| 2:41 |
: Is Scott Bandura going to be playing games in the outfield in September for the Giants? Question comes from a Princeton Tiger college teammate of his
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| 2:42 |
: It’s in play, he’s tracking well this year. I’m looking forward to seeing him in Tacoma this week. A trade would help here, as it’s a crowded outfield and there are plenty of other young guys — McCray, Cox, even Rodriguez might play a bit out there — who could get reps as well.
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| 2:42 |
: When you were refreshing the Braves system, did it seem like the pitchers generally haven’t shined as much this year? Maybe it just seems like there hasn’t been much to get excited about.
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| 2:43 |
: Briggs jumped a good bit, obviously a good sign that they graduated a couple guys, some jumps from the HM section to the main list… It’s not the same kind of growth that they got from the hitters, but that’s an unfair point for comparison.
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| 2:44 |
: Do you have any strong thoughts or general philosophy on if and when to move a guy from a starting role to the bullpen? Do you see any value in making that switch earlier/at a lower level for some guys, rather than trying to keep them stretched out?
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| 2:45 |
: Depends on the player. In general, I think I’d be letting guys throw longer/deeper into games for dev purposes. Among other things, that might be useful for separating your future starters and relievers earlier in their careers.
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| 2:46 |
: By the time they’re in the majors, if they can’t throw strikes with multiple pitches or keep traffic off the bases, and don’t have a realistic path to doing so, it’s time.
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| 2:47 |
: A Braves blogger wrote about the team having pitching depth (https://tinyurl.com/44e2b667). Would guys like Lucas Braun, Drew Hackenberg and Cedric De Grandpre be pieces that other teams would be interested as the Braves try to bolster their roster for a playoff run?
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| 2:48 |
: That caliber of prospect tends to bring back a middle reliever
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| 2:48 |
: What if anything do you make of Kade Anderson completely undressing the Tulsa team on Friday? Perfect through 5, 56 pitches, 7 Ks.
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| 2:48 |
: Wondering when/if the M’s will throttle up the pitch count this year
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| 2:49 |
: Do you think Franklin Arias is too good to be traded for the shortstops available at the deadline?
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| 2:49 |
: I would not deal him, no.
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| 2:49 |
: For Boston, he is the shortstop available at the deadline
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| 2:49 |
: As a follow-up to the Dombrowski question – I imagine he has a team do a lot of the analysis when he’s determining prospects to trade. Is this generally correct? If so, do these people typically bring their same crew when they get a new job? Otherwise I don’t know how one can sustain success at such a “in the weeds” skill over several different orgs.
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| 2:50 |
: I don’t know the man at all but from what I gather he’s a creature of habit and has a close circle of long-time scouts and advisors.
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| 2:50 |
: So, yes, there’s some continuity at play here.
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| 2:50 |
: Do you think its likely that the new CBA lowers controllable years of prospects and are GMs operating with their assumption of what the new CBA will bring?
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| 2:51 |
: No, I don’t think so. I could see a quicker path to free agency for guys who are old when they debut but I’d be very surprised if we go from six years to five for everyone.
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| 2:52 |
: A jump in the minimum wage seems likely as well
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| 2:53 |
: Why would some low-level red sox catchers get a boost? Is it because you went down to Greenville to give them specifically a closer look (due to catcher value?), or more because the Sox are doing something different with their catchers?
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| 2:54 |
: Heyman and especially Pereira are better than where we had them graded.
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| 2:54 |
: To clarify on the drop in power from Alex Lodise and other FSU players, is a drop in EV going from metal to wood bats normal? If so, how much?
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| 2:55 |
: It is normal to lose some pop, I’m not sure what the average is off the top of my head, that’s a good question. But last year’s FSU draftees were on the high end of the guys I’ve anecdotally compared wood vs. metal performance
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| 2:56 |
: How much concern should I have about Josuar’s -5 degree LA? How do I interpret that
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| 2:56 |
: For now it’s something to monitor but not be worried about
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| 2:57 |
: Do you like Encarnacion-Strand at all as a post hype guy for Baltimore? The power seems pretty legit.
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| 2:58 |
: In a platoon sort of way, maybe. But the guy is 26 has a 30% K rate in AAA this year, I’d treat his performance in Baltimore as a hot week and just be thankful for it.
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| 3:00 |
: Even if the MLB rotation is full right now, why is Kade Anderson in AA instead of AAA?
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| 3:00 |
: Seattle tends not to expose their guys to the PCL. It’s not what my instinct would be but who am I to criticize anything about how Seattle develops starting pitching?
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| 3:00 |
: (They’re very good at it)
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| 3:01 |
: I am starting to like the collection of arms the Giants have. Flora, Martinez, Bresnahan, Waechter, Bolemon, Cayama, De La Torre. Do you think there is enough here for a coule mid rotations guys and maybe a #2?
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| 3:01 |
: Don’t forget Marte. Yes, it’s a nice collection, good farm system.
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| 3:01 |
: Ben Clemens has talked before about “model blindness” which he described as “Once you make a model, you start thinking that the things it doesn’t capture aren’t real.” 1) do you think that’s real, 2) do you think teams are aware of that or may succumb to it?
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| 3:02 |
: It’s very real.
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| 3:02 |
: re: Dombroski. This year’s Klassen-and-Aldegheri-for-Carlos-Estevez….is going to include Crawford and/or Painter isn’t it?
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| 3:02 |
: Just might. I’d absolutely buy low on Painter right now.
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| 3:03 |
: Saw the Scott Bandura question earlier and it triggered a thought – would you clean out the Giants outfield via trades to see what you have with the collection of 40-45 outfielders? doesn’t sound like good business when you do have proven 50s out there, but with the way their season is going and how poorly their outfield has been, maybe a, extended look at Bandura, Cox, Davidson, Harber, Rodriguez, McCray might be interesting
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| 3:05 |
: It feels like a great time to listen on Heliot Ramos. Maybe the market isn’t there, but feels like you could probably get something interesting back for him and even if he plays well elsewhere it’s not going to be a backbreaking loss for the franchise. And then, as you say, it gives you some run to check in on a few guys.
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| 3:06 |
: What are your thoughts on Blake Mitchell? His stat line confuses the hell out of me. Is he the final boss of three true outcomes? 
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| 3:07 |
: It’s wild. This is untenable blend in the long run, but he’s a really toolsy catcher, I’d give him a lot of runway to figure it out.
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| 3:08 |
: Am I wrong to be a little unenthused by your recent descriptions of De Paula? Plus plate skills, plus bat, average power with a chance for more doesn’t sound like a star, especially with little to no defensive value. Have seen him comped to Yordan elsewehre
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| 3:09 |
: It’s a really good bat. Yordan is the ceiling, I don’t see quite that level of power, but who knows maybe he grows into it.
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| 3:09 |
: If we thought that he was that kind of hitter we’d have ranked him a little higher
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| 3:10 |
: what are the things that models tend to be more successful at identifying than scouts? vice versa?
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| 3:14 |
: Scouts are really good at identifying which guys are physically projectable, particularly at the lower levels. Models just see everything, which gives them a huge advantage in the breadth of information they’re able to access and project on. I tend to think that using your scouts to shade what the model spits out is a good posture to take.
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| 3:14 |
: Thoughts on Kohl Drake’s first couple MLB starts?
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| 3:14 |
: No. 5ish
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| 3:15 |
: Fans love to mock trades along the lines of “a bunch of my bad players for your good player.” How much of that do you think GMs do to each other?
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| 3:15 |
: A ton. There are some GM’s who are notoriously difficult to work with because of stuff like this.
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| 3:16 |
: And also some GM’s who will get really pissed at you if they think you’re low-balling them.
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| 3:16 |
: Thoughts on Lamkin and/or Johnny King as prospects at this point? How close were they to making the list?
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| 3:17 |
: Lamkin was tracking like a guy who would’ve been in the conversation, but he’s on the 60-day IL with a shoulder injury, so that’s scary. King, we need to see more strikes. I think it’s in there, the stuff is obviously good, but I want to see him throw it over more.
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| 3:18 |
: There are reports that the Mariners are scouting the Mets hard, presumably for a bat and/or RP help. Who should I get excited about in the Mariners system, knowing the range of options really varies based on who the Mets are sending?
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| 3:19 |
: The offseason list holds up pretty well. They’re not in line for an update, as things haven’t really changed a ton there.
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| 3:19 |
: Beyond the tweaks we made to the 100
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| 3:21 |
: River Ryan is more than a year older than Emmet Sheehan.
Why don’t you prospect evaluators all the players 23 and under, or something, rather that just the guys who have not lost rookie eligibility? Just because they’ve been in the majors for a while doesn’t necessarily mean the development is complete for guys like Volpe, Dominguez, and Jordan Walker. |
| 3:22 |
: We still cover guys who graduate (I just wrote about Brandon Valenzuela last week, for instance)
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| 3:22 |
: For list purposes, the player pool is already massive and a bear to cover in the depth we do, it’s just not tenable to add a third of the 25 man roster to the mix
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| 3:23 |
: Joshua Baez: arrow going up, down, or sideways over the past month? I know he’ll get a shot sooner or later, but should we imagine what he’s doing right now might translate favorably. Thanks!
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| 3:23 |
: Sideways
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| 3:23 |
: Has the ship set sail on Didier Fuentes’ rotation hopes?
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| 3:23 |
: I don’t think so.
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| 3:23 |
: Last week you told me I was being picky by pointing this out, but coming at it a different way: any thoughts on why the Mariners aren’t developing good pitching prospects from Latin America given how good they are at developing pitchers generally? Seems like a huge talent pool they’re not scouting/developing effectively, which strikes me as incongruous given that it’s their greatest organizational strength.
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| 3:24 |
: They pour a ton of their international bonus resources into bats
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| 3:25 |
: I think it’s also useful to view their competence developing pitchers through the lens of “maxing out the talented guys” rather than turning water into wine among the flier types.
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| 3:26 |
: I assume they’d do well with, I don’t know, Kevin Defrank, but they’re not really swimming that pool usually
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| 3:26 |
: Am I missing something or is Josiah Ragsdale missing from the Brewers list? Wasn’t expecting him to be in the new T100 or anything but figured with the tear he’s been on that he’d at least be in their T20.
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| 3:26 |
: We haven’t updated it yet
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| 3:27 |
: Seems Parks Harbor may be pressed into big league duty with the injuries/trade deadline turnover. Is he pretty much what he is at this point? Either way, that Doval trade looking pretty good!
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| 3:27 |
: I think he’s a 45 but there are people in the org who would tell you that’s light. excited to see what he looks like when he reaches the big leagues, great scouting/acquisition from both NYY and SFG
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| 3:28 |
: How do other teams view a guy like Aidan Miller? If Philly were to offer him in trades, would teams wonder if Philly knows something about the back that they don’t?
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| 3:28 |
: Really hard to acquire a guy like that right now
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| 3:28 |
: How could you have any confidence about him physically going forward
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| 3:29 |
: is arjun nimmala the jays shortstop at next years trade deadline? is diet colson montgomery the right direction for an mlb comp?
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| 3:30 |
: That feels a little quick for Nimmala, he’s still only had 28 games at Double-A. Relative to Colson, I think I’d tweak “diet” to “less extreme”
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| 3:30 |
: In ways good and bad
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| 3:33 |
: Wilder Dalis is absolutely on fire since showing up at Low A again (after mysteriously disappearing for a while). What would it take for him to get consideration for the T100 in the offseason?
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| 3:33 |
: Keep doing this for a little while longer.
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| 3:33 |
: Mason Miller as a trade chit again feels so weird; Preller just dealt a top-5 prospect for him. Do you think he actually re-flips him? What does a return look like? I have trouble believing they trade him, it feels like such an admission of failure.
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| 3:34 |
: Devil’s advocate, he basically did the same thing with Juan Soto
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| 3:34 |
: The weird part here is that Miller has somehow found another gear and may not fetch the same kind of return
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| 3:35 |
: It makes sense from a valuation standpoint but it’s tough to swallow if you’re. a fan.
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| 3:35 |
: Grant McCray: 4th OF? Anything more?
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| 3:35 |
: That’s where I projected him.
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| 3:35 |
: Has to keep the swing and miss under control even for that. But he’s a good athlete with tools, his homer yesterday was impressive
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| 3:36 |
: Really struggling to understand a Foster Griffin return. Do you think he nets a backend T100 guy?
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| 3:37 |
: Me too, man. Someone in the sea of players from 75 to 200 as a headliner feels right?
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| 3:37 |
: Can you explain pitchability vs. stuff? Reviewing Jesus A. Castro and that was the conclusion of his rundown this preseason.
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| 3:38 |
: Stuff = your pitches and their overall quality Pitchability = how well you work with your stuff |
| 3:39 |
: When you look at a guy like Owen Murphy, do you see anything that could lead you to dream on him adding a couple ticks of velo?
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| 3:40 |
: A couple ticks? Probably not unless he goes to shorter stints and airs it out.
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| 3:40 |
: I don’t see low hanging fruit on the delivery and he’s already pretty well built
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| 3:41 |
: Do you think the Twins are kicking themselves that they didn’t accept the Red Sox offer last deadline of Tolle and Arias for Joe Ryan (per reports)?
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| 3:41 |
: They’d definitely do it now…
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| 3:42 |
: re: guys being projectable, is that based on seeing lots of guys who grow up and grow big vs not, or are there markers you look for, or…? and are there reasons that is not reproducible by a model?
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| 3:43 |
: Art of scouting. In theory a model could get good at this too, and maybe it’s a matter of time, but we’re not there yet.
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| 3:43 |
: What you think the Jays should do here?
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| 3:43 |
: Sell the expiring contracts for whatever they return and otherwise run it back.
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| 3:44 |
: Trading Mason Miller just to get off the Xander contract (which has been floated elsewhere) would be akin to GM malpractice, right?
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| 3:45 |
: Depends what you do with the money.
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| 3:46 |
: can i ask about ronny hernandez again — the guy has 27 walks, 20 strikeouts, and 11 home runs. who is he, is he good, and why does he barely play
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| 3:46 |
: He’s a player of very obvious strengths and weaknesses, the later of which are a little less visible on the stat sheet. Catchers do a lot of job sharing in the low minors
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| 3:46 |
: How much of a sea change would an international prospect draft be over the current system?
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| 3:47 |
: Huge. A gift to the teams who don’t do well in Latin America.
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| 3:47 |
: Mark Attanasio would be nuts to push for this
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| 3:48 |
: i guess model takes “results” and not “body shape and build”…
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| 3:49 |
: They do.
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| 3:50 |
: Any intel on Jack O’Dowd? I get that he’s a pop up guy who’s been older than the competition but does it look sustainable or just a guy feasting on lower level arms?
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| 3:50 |
: We haven’t done a ‘circle back next week, please’ yet, so let’s do it here
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| 3:51 |
: Late to the party, so maybe this has come up (unlikely) but Kristian Campbell is something like .340/.509/.590 for July in AAA after sucking for the better part of two years. Thoughts?
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| 3:52 |
: Still think there’s a good player in there somewhere…
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| 3:53 |
: Any thoughts on Jake Munroe? Surface level stats look good so far
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| 3:53 |
: He’ll be on the angels list. I don’t love the way he moves but he’s hitting enough that I have to take a fresh look at him. Corner bench bat profile.
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| 3:55 |
: People are so funny about River Ryan. Agree to disagree about the how high to stuff him, but this dude is not a non-prospect https://tjstats.ca/player/river-ryan-689981/?id=689981
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| 3:55 |
: Right. He seems to, like, annoy some people in a way that I find strange and offputting.
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| 3:56 |
: At what level do you put the most stock in for assessing SB success rates? I tend to look the most closely at AAA production, since my guess is that the pitchers and catchers, by that time, have developed their ability to hold runners or throw them out.
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| 3:56 |
: Like just about everything else, it gets harder with each passing level.
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| 3:57 |
: The Brewers have a bunch of flawed power hitting first basemen in its system. How would you rank Burke, Fisher, Adams and Bitonti and are you high on any of them?
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| 3:58 |
: Not especially high on the group, would go Fisher, Burke, Adams, and Bitonti. I see contributors more than stars.
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| 3:58 |
: What about baseball in Corpus Christi?
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| 3:58 |
: Sara!
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| 3:58 |
: The ballpark is nice
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| 3:58 |
: Everything flies out to left field
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| 3:59 |
: in your experience, has there even been a case of pedigree/genetics that maybe swayed your favor on a guy?
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| 4:00 |
: It’s sometimes something that helps contextualize a player. Like, Brady Ebel is a very coaches-kid coded prospect. These types often have good feel for the game, which is a round up trait. Not always, I didn’t think Homer Bush Jr. did, especially.
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| 4:00 |
: Met’s Santucci a future starter?
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| 4:01 |
: It’s possible but I think itll be hard without a change and he’s not throwing his much.
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| 4:01 |
: We went back and forth on him as a possible T100 guy
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| 4:01 |
: I’m really intrigued by Drew Cavanaugh, especially by how rapidly he raised his stock.17th round pick, started off last season as a depth guy getting shuttled around to whatever level needed a replacement catcher, and now he’s in the majors after running a 165 wRC+ in AAA. Is a backup catcher still his realistic ceiling?
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| 4:02 |
: I’m really intrigued too, another really nice scouting job from SF. He could be an everyday guy, I wouldn’t put it as the median outcome but it’s in play.
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| 4:02 |
: How aware are you guys of MiLB park effects just off the top of your head? Do you see Willits in Hi-A and think “man Wilmington’s a bad hitter’s park”? Obviously the PCL is in its own league (pun intended) but just curious if that’s ready information in your mind?
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| 4:03 |
: I’d like to think we’re pretty on top of contextual factors. We were on the ball being weird almost immediately, for instance.
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| 4:03 |
: Idk how exactly to word this, but in your opinion or experience, is there a point where “amount of good prospects in a system” has diminishing returns? Around where is that point? Is it basically “oh, that 40 man roster crunch next year looks like it will be pretty horrible”?
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| 4:04 |
: Not really, you can never have too many good players.
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| 4:04 |
: Is bullet/blitz more competitive on chess.com or am I just bad at those formats?
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| 4:04 |
: They’re really hard if you’re not used to the time constraints
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| 4:05 |
: On that note, think I’ll shut it down here today. Thanks as always for the good questions, and we’ll do it again next week.
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