PHR Mailbag: Predators, Blues, Bruins, Flyers, Revenues, Panthers
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Nashville’s busy summer, what’s next for the Flyers, and more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag columns while we’ll have one more from our most recent call for questions.
GBear: After all the acquisitions the Preds new GM MacFarland made this summer, it almost looks like they have too many NHL-caliber forwards now. Who possibly gets moved before the season begins?
I don’t think they have too many forwards, to be honest. Yes, they’ve added seven of them but they also had some openings to fill. Fedor Svechkov and Zachary L’Heureux went to Colorado in trades. Erik Haula and Tyson Jost departed in free agency. And they didn’t really replace Michael Bunting, Michael McCarron, or Cole Smith when they were moved before the trade deadline. They just went with internal options instead.
Accordingly, I don’t think they necessarily have to move anyone. Speaking of those internal options late in the year, I could see Ozzy Wiesblatt landing on waivers in the fall to try to get him back to the minors. Joakim Kemell and Reid Schaefer are still waiver-exempt so they can easily go back to AHL Milwaukee and play big minutes there. Assuming the rule tweak about a 19-year-old CHL player being able to play in the minors is done (reports peg it between being close to done and done), Brady Martin can go to the Admirals as well.
There are going to be injuries throughout the season and having some quality internal options getting big minutes in the minors to fill those roles when needed would be great. Add to that the likelihood of the Preds carrying 14 forwards to start and there’s enough roster space for pretty much everyone. GM Chris MacFarland added a lot for sure but they have room for them without needing to move out anyone else.
Nha Trang: Who’s going to be the winner of the annual Rodrigues-Grzelcyk Musical Chairs Award for the free agent who hoped to cash in on millions, and is left slinking into a camp on a PTO?
Two names come to mind. One is Patrik Laine. I thought his market would be decent. A lower guaranteed salary on a one-year deal with some bonuses for games played and goals seems fair. With the lower guaranteed portion, it’s something that a lot of teams could afford. I was expecting several teams to come in with something like that and I imagine his agent was too. At this point, I’m not sure any have come in. If teams are that concerned about his skating and his play without the puck on his stick, his options might be limited in which case, a PTO might be the way to go.
The other is Logan Stanley. We saw speculation of hoping for $5MM per year or something in that range on at least a medium-term contract. Last season was a breakout year offensively but teams are aware of his history. He’s a third-pairing player, ideally someone in a number six role. If that asking price doesn’t come down, he’ll eventually be facing a low multi-year offer or a short-term or PTO offer.
vincent k. mcmahon: Who do you see the Blues running out on the third and fourth line come opening night?
I see these as what could be the potential lines:
Neighbours-Dvorsky-Berggren
Johnston-Suter-Toropchenko
That still leaves Dube, Finley, Sunny, and Walker as options. This is also assuming Stenberg or another forward from Springfield doesn’t crack the opening night roster.
I could see Pius Suter starting the season centering the third line with Dalibor Dvorsky on the wing (alongside Jake Neighbours). I don’t think there’s much harm in giving Dvorsky a bit of time on the wing while trying to see if Suter can find a higher gear than he had last season. For someone who has some offensive skill, having him on the fourth line feels like a waste of time so I think they’ll give him a shot on the third. And even if Dvorsky is the center of the future on that trio, helping Suter’s value as an expiring contract could be useful later in the season on the trade front.
I agree that Alexey Toropchenko should start on the fourth line. I’m not a big Ross Johnston fan but the contract he got means he’s on the wing. But by moving Suter up, that means one of Jack Finley, Oskar Sundqvist, or Dillon Dube has to center the trio. The fact Sundqvist accepted a two-way offer suggests to me he knows he’s AHL-bound to start. Talent-wise, I’d rather Dube over Finley but it comes down to who they think is easiest to get through waivers unclaimed. With Jonatan Berggren and Nathan Walker as the two extra forwards (Berggren will play a lot as injuries arise), Dube and Finley are fighting for the 4C spot and a spot on the roster altogether. It wouldn’t shock me if they took Finley but my pick would be Dube so that there is a bit of skill on that trio.
Skidrowe: Please rank the Bruins’ greatest needs (1C, middle-six scoring winger, 1LD, 2RD)? Who’s available and what would it take to get them?
Flip your second and third options and I think they’re in the right order. A top center has been a need for Boston for ages and that hasn’t changed, even if they have hopes that James Hagens can fill the role down the road. Pavel Zacha’s a nice piece but he’s not a number one, nor is Elias Lindholm at this stage of his career. The problem is that beyond Dylan Larkin (who may or may not be available given Detroit’s current GM situation), there isn’t anyone readily available to fit that need. And you can quibble about Larkin being a number one on a contender, for that matter. If a true top center were to become available, the return would be more significant than the five draft picks (including three first-rounders) that Brady Tkachuk received.
By the nature of the role, a top-pairing left-shot defenseman would have to be next on the list. In a perfect world, Hampus Lindholm fills the role but that hasn’t worked too well just yet. I can’t think of one that would be available in a trade, however, and there certainly aren’t any players of that caliber left in free agency. As for a price tag, the Bowen Byram return (an early first-round pick, a decent young blueliner, and a second-rounder) should serve as a reasonable benchmark, especially given the high prices being paid this summer.
I think the Bruins think they’ve solved the 2RD position with the William Borgen pickup (I’m not sold on that but their opinion matters more than mine) so that just leaves the middle-six winger. The good news is that filling this is still achievable without having to do much. Vladimir Tarasenko, Michael Bunting, and Eeli Tolvanen are all still unsigned unrestricted free agents and will receive contracts that would fit inside Boston’s current $5.3MM in cap space, per PuckPedia. There’s no need to turn to the trade market to fill that one; save the trade chips in case an opportunity to fill one of the more important spots comes up.
Emoney123: What’s next for the Flyers? Trade with Carolina for Alexander Nikishin or Columbus for Kirill Marchenko, possibility of an offer sheet to Adam Fantilli? What type of contract will Matvei Michkov sign before he becomes a restricted free agent next season or will he be included in a trade package?
For the first set of questions, I’m not sure there is a next move. Of the three, I suppose Nikishin is the most realistic; I don’t think Marchenko is moving this summer and Fantilli probably isn’t signing an offer sheet. Signing one that Columbus would think twice about matching would probably put the Flyers over the cap. Nikishin’s asking price on his contract is rather substantial; he’d be Philadelphia’s top-paid defender by a big margin but if the goal is a core addition, he would fit the bill.
I suspect the likeliest outcome is that they’re largely done, however. Just because GM Daniel Briere was willing to throw just about everything at Leo Carlsson doesn’t mean they’re desperate for any big add. They were willing to go big to get the number one center that simply doesn’t become available. But that doesn’t mean they’re going to be that aggressive for the sake of taking another big swing.
The Flyers are emerging from their rebuild but even that takes some time. They showed last year that when things can go right, this group has some promise. They’ve locked up some key parts of that core group now and when the opportunity presents itself, they can try to strike. But that opportunity has probably come and gone this summer.
As for Michkov, I’ll say neither of those are likely to happen. I don’t think they want to trade him (certainly not while he’s coming off a quieter year than expected) and Briere has already indicated the intention to let the upcoming season play out first so an extension isn’t forthcoming. That was before contracts started escalating in price quickly so now Michkov’s camp should be even more willing to play out this year. If he has a breakout performance, he’ll get a lot more next summer compared to what he would by signing now. Even if the big year doesn’t happen, just getting back to the 60-point mark would be enough to bolster his value. Lots of times, an early extension makes sense but this time around, waiting things out is the smarter move for his camp.