Quinn Hughes Has All Of The Leverage In His Contract Negotiations
There has perhaps never been an NHL player in history with the kind of leverage that Minnesota Wild defenseman Quinn Hughes holds in his current contract negotiations. Hughes is in the prime of his career, is a franchise player, has already earned a good chunk of money, has siblings on another team, and plays for a team that paid a franchise-altering price to acquire him just a few months ago. The NHL has rarely seen anything quite like this. The Wild gave up Marco Rossi, Zeev Buium, Liam Öhgren, and a first-round pick to acquire Hughes late last year. At this point, walking away without a long-term extension would make the trade an absolute disaster. Minnesota general manager Bill Guerin has every incentive to avoid even the perception of failure, and that is one of the biggest reasons Hughes holds so much leverage.
Elite first-pairing defensemen in their prime are among the NHL’s rarest assets to hit the market, and Hughes is especially rare given his skill set and the impact he can have on games. Hughes drives offense, controls possession, quarterbacks the power play, and plays massive minutes almost effortlessly, which is exactly why the Wild gave up so much to acquire him and have made every effort to build around him and sign him.
Hughes has full control of the situation and could ask for a blank cheque if he wanted to. This is especially true since the Wild have tied their competitive window to keeping him long-term. Hughes and his agent also know this next point is true: there is not a single comparable replacement for Hughes in the entire NHL. If the talks fall apart and the two sides stop negotiating, there isn’t a trade or signing out there that would allow Minnesota to replace Hughes. Even if they somehow recovered the assets they traded to get him, it would stunt their win-now opportunities and leave them a worse team in the near future.
The longer this negotiation drags on, the more it favors Hughes and puts pressure on the Wild, especially if they enter the season without a new deal in place. One can only imagine the early days of Wild training camp being dominated by questions about Hughes’ long-term future in Minnesota. The Wild have been down this road before with a superstar in Kirill Kaprizov, and they’d probably prefer a smoother resolution this time around. But that negotiation will likely haunt them here, as Hughes will no doubt want to top Kaprizov’s $17MM AAV, and waiting for it (or better) rarely hurts a player of Hughes’ caliber when it comes to getting their money.
It’s hard to even recall a player of Hughes’ pedigree reaching UFA status, and probably not ever at the age of 27, which is what Hughes will be when he hits free agency. It simply doesn’t happen anymore and hasn’t for a very long time, largely because teams lock up players like Hughes or move them if they can’t sign them, and the new team signs the player. The last time a defenseman with Hughes’ pedigree hit unrestricted free agency might have been in the mid-2000s, when Zdeno Chara and Scott Niedermayer hit free agency in consecutive summers in 2005 and 2006. While those were big-name Hall of Famers who went on to win Stanley Cups with their new teams, neither had the offensive upside of Hughes or the youth, as Chara was 29 when he hit free agency, and Niedermayer was 31 and turned 32 a few weeks later.
Looking at all the noise around Hughes and the Wild, it’s quite clear that one side of the negotiation needs the other far more than the other. To state things bluntly, the Wild need Hughes far more than he needs them. There are 31 other NHL teams, but only one Quinn Hughes. Minnesota has already committed a lot of assets to Hughes, which gives him leverage to ask for anything he wants. If he doesn’t want to compromise in any way, he is the one holding all the cards, and walking away would damage the Wild and their reputation far more than it would Hughes.
Then there are the family considerations for Hughes, who is less than 11 months away from being able to move East to the New Jersey Devils to play with his brothers, Jack Hughes and Luke Hughes. That opportunity has to be an elephant in the room during the negotiations, and something Minnesota is thinking about as they try to lock Hughes up. The Hughes brothers playing together would be very unique, as it wouldn’t be siblings getting together at the end of their careers for a nostalgia tour or simply to do something they’ve always wanted. It would be three brothers playing together during the primes of their careers, surrounded by other solid pieces in a similar age bracket. That opportunity is unheard of, and it’s something the Wild need Hughes to pass on if they want to sign him. But it is also the leverage Hughes has in these negotiations with the Wild, and one of the key reasons he can ask for a blank cheque.